China Economic Data Tracker — PMI, GDP, PBoC, Trade Balance
China is the world's second-largest economy and the marginal buyer for crude, copper, iron ore and most commodities. Every data release moves AUD, CAD, commodity currencies, and Asian equity indices. We track the calendar.
Key Chinese data releases
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI — first business day of the month, 1:45 GMT. Private-sector skewed (smaller firms, exporters).
- NBS Manufacturing PMI — last day of prior month, 1:00 GMT. State-sector skewed (SOEs, larger firms).
- Trade Balance (customs data) — monthly, ~13th-15th. Exports/imports YoY moves CNY and commodity currencies.
- CPI/PPI — monthly, ~9th-10th. Deflation risk is the dominant 2024–2026 narrative.
- GDP — quarterly. Often hits the 5% government target on the dot.
- Retail Sales / Industrial Production / FAI — monthly, ~15th.
- PBoC LPR (1Y and 5Y) — monthly, ~20th. Direct PBoC policy signal.
- PBoC MLF — monthly. Liquidity injection signal.
- SAFE FX reserves — monthly, ~7th.
What moves on Chinese data
- AUD/USD — direct China-Australia trade linkage (iron ore, LNG)
- CAD/USD — China is marginal copper buyer, indirect CAD impact
- CNY/USD — direct, sometimes capped by PBoC fixing
- Iron ore futures (DCE 62% fines), copper (LME, SHFE)
- Crude (China is largest importer)
- Asian equities — Hang Seng, CSI 300, Nikkei
PBoC liquidity operations
The PBoC manages liquidity through reverse repos (7d, 14d), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts. We track:
- Daily OMO (Open Market Operations) net injection/drainage
- MLF rate decisions (currently 2.0% in 2026)
- RRR cut announcements (historically 25bp or 50bp)
- LPR fixings (1Y for corporate loans, 5Y for mortgages)
Related TNT pages
- Macro news feed
- Central banks tracker (includes PBoC)
- Economic calendar
- Oil news alerts (China is the marginal buyer)
FAQ
When is Chinese PMI released?
Caixin Manufacturing PMI: first business day of each month at 1:45 GMT. NBS Manufacturing PMI: last day of the prior month at 1:00 GMT. Caixin services follows on the third business day.
Why are Chinese PMIs different (Caixin vs NBS)?
NBS surveys ~3,200 firms, weighted toward SOEs and large enterprises. Caixin (compiled by S&P Global) surveys ~430 firms, weighted toward private exporters and smaller firms. They often diverge — Caixin tends to lead by 1–2 months on cycle turns.
Does TNT track PBoC MLF and LPR?
Yes. PBoC LPR is published monthly at 1:15 GMT (~20th). MLF operations are typically the 15th of each month. Both generate HIGH-impact alerts on TNT with assets <code>CNY, USD, AUD, CAD, IRON, COPPER</code>.
How does Chinese trade data move markets?
Year-over-year export/import growth surprises move AUD/USD by 30–80 pips, CNY/USD by 0.2–0.5%, and commodity currencies broadly. Iron ore and copper futures react within 1–2 minutes of the release.
Is Chinese GDP reliable?
Historically Chinese GDP has hit government targets with suspicious consistency. However, the underlying monthly data (PMI, electricity consumption, rail freight, steel production, industrial production) cross-validate the high-level GDP number. TNT shows both.
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