What moved the wire
The session was defined by an escalating but deliberately ambiguous U.S. military campaign against Iran, running in parallel with signals — from Tehran and Washington alike — that a negotiated off-ramp remains on the table. According to newswires, U.S. forces launched a second wave of strikes against Iran at 3 p.m. ET, specifically targeting Iranian military capabilities used to threaten vessels freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in the day, the same forces disabled the Curaçao-flagged tanker M/T Belma in the Arabian Gulf using Hellfire missiles fired into the vessel's smokestack, after it attempted to transit toward Iran's Kharg Island. Reports of explosions were confirmed in multiple Iranian cities — Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, and Ahvaz — by Iran's state-linked Mehr News Agency, adding to the sense that strikes were broad rather than surgical.
Yet even as ordnance was in the air, President Trump kept the diplomatic channel conspicuously open. According to ForexLive and multiple newswire feeds, Trump stated publicly that Iran wants to meet and that the U.S. will not simply engage in endless bombing — language echoed by Vice President Vance on the Joe Rogan Experience. Trump further indicated he expects oil to reach $55 per barrel once Iran "settles down," a remarkably specific forward guidance that framed the conflict in explicitly commercial terms. According to dow jones, oil edged up amid uncertainty over the next U.S.-Iran moves — catching a modest bid on the supply-risk premium, but apparently capped by the prospect of a deal that could normalise Gulf flows.
The geopolitical backdrop was thickened by several secondary storylines. A Semafor report noted the U.S. and Iraq are set to announce $60 billion in commercial deals, as the Trump administration pivots U.S.-Iraq ties toward commerce over military engagement — a reorientation with implications for regional order. On Capitol Hill, Nancy Pelosi announced a vote in favour of the Massie amendment to cut $3.3 billion in U.S. military aid to Israel, a break described as historic given her record as one of Congress's most reliable Israel supporters. Separately, briefing reported that Fed Governor Warsh signalled no tolerance for high inflation and hinted at rate hikes — a hawkish note that layered macro pressure onto an already tense session.
Asset reaction
Crude oil caught a tentative bid as the second wave of U.S. strikes and reported explosions across Iranian port cities stoked supply-disruption anxiety, but gains were restrained by Trump's own commentary suggesting he expects oil at $55 per barrel on a settlement — effectively putting a ceiling on the geopolitical risk premium. The Strait of Hormuz interdiction story kept a floor under prices, even as diplomatic language softened sentiment at the margin.
The dollar firmed modestly, supported by Warsh's hawkish inflation signals, which pushed back against any near-term easing expectations. Trump's own comment that it is better to suspend interest rate cuts than increase them added an unusual presidential voice to the rate-hold camp.
Shipping and sanctions-linked names came under pressure after reports that Athens is opposing new EU sanctions on Russia specifically to shield a Greek shipping company, according to the Financial Times — a headline that flagged both renewed Russia-sanctions risk and growing intra-EU friction over enforcement. Gulf-exposed assets tracked the Iran headlines with a bearish lean, consistent with the weight of negative flow across the session.
Headlines that drove the session
- [newswires] U.S. MILITARY: FORCES LAUNCHED SECOND WAVE OF STRIKES AGAINST IRAN AT 3PM ET TODAY; TARGETING IRANIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES USED TO THREATEN VESSELS FREELY TRANSITING STRAIT OF HORMUZ
- [newswires] U.S. MILITARY: FORCES DISABLE NON-COMPLIANT CURAÇAO-FLAGGED VESSEL M/T BELMA IN ARABIAN GULF USING HELLFIRE MISSILES FIRED INTO SMOKESTACK; VESSEL WAS UNLADEN AND ATTEMPTING TO TRANSIT TOWARD IRAN'S KHARG ISLAND
- [newswires] TRUMP: IRAN WANTS TO MEET; EXPECTS OIL TO REACH $55/BBL WHEN IRAN SETTLES DOWN
- [newswires] TRUMP ON IRAN: WILL DETERMINE WHETHER TO SETTLE OR FINISH IT OFF
- [newswires] IRAN'S MEHR NEWS AGENCY SAYS EXPLOSIONS HEARD IN BANDAR ABBAS
- [newswires] EXPLOSIONS HEARD IN IRAN'S AHVAZ, ORIGIN UNKNOWN — IRAN'S MEHR NEWS AGENCY
- [briefing] Fed's Warsh signals no tolerance for high inflation, hints at rate hikes
- [newswires] ATHENS OPPOSES NEW EU SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA TO SHIELD GREEK SHIPPING COMPANY — FT
- [newswires] U.S. AND IRAQ TO ANNOUNCE $60B IN COMMERCIAL DEALS AS TRUMP PIVOTS U.S.-IRAQ TIES TOWARDS COMMERCE OVER MILITARY — SEMAFOR
- [newswires] NANCY PELOSI ANNOUNCES VOTE IN FAVOUR OF MASSIE AMENDMENT TO CUT $3.3 BILLION IN U.S. MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL
Trade the follow-through
The critical unknown heading into the next session is whether Iran's stated willingness to meet translates into a verifiable pause in hostilities — or whether a third wave of strikes arrives before any diplomatic contact is made. Warsh's rate-hike hint is worth tracking against the next Fed communication, and the EU-Russia sanctions fracture out of Athens could widen if other member states with shipping exposure follow Greece's lead. Position accordingly and stay close to the tape.