Treasury yields hold steady as traders assess mixed signals on Iran war de-escalation

Treasury yields held steady as traders weighed conflicting reports on Iran-related geopolitical tensions, with some signals pointing to potential de-escalation while others suggested ongoing risks. The muted move in US10Y yields reflects a balance between safe-haven demand and reduced urgency for aggressive Fed easing, as war-related oil supply disruptions appear less likely in the near term. This dynamic primarily affects US duration and Middle East risk premiums, with Iranian proxy activity and naval incidents remaining key triggers for renewed volatility. The market remains sensitive to shifts in risk appetite driven by geopolitical uncertainty, with oil prices and credit spreads in emerging markets acting as secondary transmission channels. Traders will watch the next US CPI release and any updates from Gulf diplomatic channels for cues on both inflation and regional stability.

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