Inside India newsletter: Tariffs and Iran war threaten India's $100 billion garments export goal

India's ambition to reach $100 billion in garment exports faces headwinds from rising global tariffs and geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict. Protectionist trade measures, particularly from key markets like the U.S. and EU, are increasing cost barriers for Indian textile shipments, affecting competitiveness through the trade cost channel. Simultaneously, supply chain disruptions and elevated shipping premiums due to instability in the Middle East are raising logistics expenses, impacting export margins and working capital cycles. The combination of tariff pressures and regional conflict is weakening near-term growth prospects for India’s export-dependent apparel sector. Traders will watch upcoming U.S. import data and freight rate trends on the Asia-Mediterranean corridor for early signs of demand or cost normalization.

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