US Treasury yield forecasts creep up, but strategists cling to benign inflation view: Reuters poll

A recent Reuters poll shows US Treasury yield forecasts edging higher, with strategists revising up their 10-year yield expectations amid persistent but contained inflation pressures. The upward revision in yields reflects modest repricing in rate expectations, though most analysts maintain a benign inflation outlook, limiting the bearish momentum in bonds. This dynamic supports a steeper yield curve as front-end rates remain anchored by Fed forward guidance while long-end yields adjust to higher growth and deficit concerns. The US10Y is particularly exposed due to its sensitivity to inflation and fiscal breakevens, with foreign demand and Treasury supply dynamics adding upward pressure. Traders will watch the upcoming CPI print and Treasury auction results for signals on whether the current inflation resilience triggers a broader reevaluation of the neutral rate assumption.

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