JP Morgan Warns Oil Could Hit $120 if Hormuz Stalemate Drags Into July

JP Morgan has indicated that oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel if the ongoing stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz extends into July. This projection reflects concerns over supply disruptions, which could significantly tighten the oil market and elevate prices due to heightened geopolitical risks. The primary assets exposed to this scenario include crude oil futures and energy stocks, particularly those linked to production and transportation in the Middle East. Traders will be closely watching developments in the region, especially any announcements regarding diplomatic negotiations or military escalations that could impact shipping routes.

HIGH-impact news is typically a market-moving event with multi-pip or multi-percent intraday reactions. Examples include central bank rate decisions, major CPI/NFP releases, geopolitical shocks, mega-cap earnings beats/misses, and regulatory announcements. Traders typically position-reduce or hedge ahead of scheduled HIGH-impact events, and follow the wire in real time to react to unscheduled ones (war headlines, central-bank emergency statements, surprise corporate actions). The Trading News Terminal squawk box reads every HIGH-impact headline aloud the moment it hits the wire — so active traders don't have to stare at the feed.

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