The March CPI report showed a 0.4% monthly increase, driving the year-over-year rate to 3.5%, above expectations and reflecting broad-based price pressures, particularly in shelter and services. Despite the overall upside surprise, disinflation progress was noted in core goods and used cars, offering tentative evidence that supply chain normalization and prior rate hikes are having a selective impact. The data complicates the Federal Reserve’s policy path, reducing near-term rate cut bets as traders reassess the timing of monetary easing based on sticky service-sector inflation. Treasury yields rose on the print, putting pressure on duration-sensitive assets, while the dollar strengthened on widened policy rate differentials. Traders will focus on the April PCE report and Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming remarks for signals on whether the inflation bounce is transitory or marks a renewed upward trend.
March CPI Inflation - Ugly Overall, But Some Good News Inside
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