Oil prices tick up amid doubt on Iran war ceasefire; Chinese factory gate costs increase for first time in four years

Oil prices edged higher as uncertainty persists over the durability of a potential Iran war ceasefire, stoking concerns about supply disruptions in a tightly balanced market. Geopolitical risk premia are being repriced amid fragile negotiations, affecting crude futures through the supply disruption channel, particularly for Brent given its sensitivity to Middle East tensions. Simultaneously, China’s producer price index rose for the first time in four years, signaling firmer domestic demand and potentially limiting Beijing’s room for dovish monetary shifts, which supports industrial commodities and the yuan. Markets are assessing whether the PBOC will adjust liquidity settings at the next Medium-Term Lending Facility operation. Traders will watch the upcoming U.S. EIA crude inventory report for confirmation of supply tightness amid elevated geopolitical risk.

Crude oil (WTI/Brent) reacts in real time to OPEC+ production decisions, EIA weekly inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve announcements. A 5% intraday move on breaking news is not unusual.

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