China poised for Q1 GDP growth rebound but Iran war dims 2026 outlook: Reuters poll

China's Q1 GDP growth is expected to rebound due to domestic stimulus and improved industrial activity, supporting near-term optimism for Chinese equities and commodity demand. However, escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran are weighing on the 2026 growth outlook, as regional conflict risks threaten energy supply stability and global risk appetite. The transmission mechanism centers on heightened uncertainty affecting long-term capital allocation, with emerging market assets and oil-sensitive currencies most exposed. Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming Chinese credit impulse data and any shifts in OPEC+ production signals as key near-term catalysts.

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