OPEC lowers second-quarter global oil demand forecast on Iran war

OPEC revised its second-quarter global oil demand forecast downward, citing heightened uncertainty and economic disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran. The escalation has intensified concerns over supply chain instability and regional supply disruptions, weighing on global growth and energy consumption expectations. This repricing of demand fundamentals has pressured crude oil prices, particularly affecting benchmarks like Brent and WTI, while also influencing risk sentiment toward emerging market assets and energy equities. Geopolitical risk premia remain elevated, with traders closely watching shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and any further military spillover. The next key catalyst will be OPEC’s monthly oil market report, which may signal whether production adjustments are being considered to stabilize prices.

Crude oil (WTI/Brent) reacts in real time to OPEC+ production decisions, EIA weekly inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve announcements. A 5% intraday move on breaking news is not unusual.

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