Spain March final CPI +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y expected

Spain's final March CPI came in at +3.4% year-on-year, slightly above the expected +3.3%, confirming persistent inflationary pressures in the eurozone's fourth-largest economy. The upside surprise reinforces expectations that underlying price pressures remain sticky, potentially limiting the European Central Bank's ability to ease policy aggressively despite softening growth. This data adds to recent hawkish repricing in EUR rate markets, supporting the euro and tightening front-end eurozone yield spreads relative to other G10 peers. Markets will now focus on the full eurozone HICP release for March on April 1, where median inflation trends will be critical for EUR pricing. Any divergence between core eurozone inflation and national prints like Spain’s could trigger shifts in EUR sovereign debt spreads, particularly in peripheral bonds.

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