China Q1 GDP beats forecasts but Iran war risks loom

China's Q1 GDP growth came in above consensus, signaling resilient domestic activity despite ongoing structural headwinds in the property sector and weak external demand. The outperformance supports near-term yuan stability and may delay further PBOC easing, reinforcing a modestly positive yuan and Chinese equity bias in the short term. However, escalating Iran-related geopolitical tensions threaten to disrupt global oil supply routes, potentially widening risk premiums in energy markets and undermining risk appetite for emerging market assets, including Chinese equities and the yuan. The market transmission channel centers on oil price volatility and risk-off capital flows, with Brent crude and Asian EM FX particularly exposed. Traders will watch the next OPEC+ meeting and U.S. Treasury sanctions updates on Iran for directional cues.

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