The February UK GDP report will provide the final data point on economic growth before the onset of the Iran conflict, offering insight into the baseline health of the economy. Market focus will center on whether pre-war activity showed resilience or fragility, with implications for near-term growth and monetary policy expectations. The release could influence sterling and UK government bond yields through shifts in rate differential and risk appetite channels, particularly if data deviates from consensus. Equities with domestic UK exposure, including financials and consumer sectors, are most sensitive to growth revisions. Traders will watch the 12 March preliminary March PMI data as the next real-time indicator of wartime economic momentum.
February GDP report to show if UK economy was growing before Iran war began – business live
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