New Zealand's Q1 CPI rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding both the 0.8% forecast and prior 0.6% print, while annual CPI held steady at 3.1%, above the 2.9% expected, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. The upside surprise was driven by a 1.1% q/q jump in non-tradeable CPI, surpassing its 0.9% estimate, indicating domestic demand and services pricing remain hot, which may reinforce expectations for a less dovish RBNZ. This inflation resilience supports higher-for-longer rate differentials, potentially bolstering the NZD, particularly against commodity currencies with softer inflation trends. Markets most exposed include NZ interest rate futures and the NZD/USD pair, as traders reassess the RBNZ’s potential for delayed rate cuts. Traders will focus on the upcoming RBNZ meeting minutes and Q2 inflation expectations data for confirmation on policy path divergence.
NEW ZEALAND Q1 CPI RISES 0.9% Q/Q, ABOVE THE 0.8% ESTIMATE AND 0.6% PRIOR. ANNUAL CPI HOLDS AT 3.1%, BEATING THE 2.9% FORECAST. TRADEABLE CPI UP 0.7% Q/Q, NON-TRADEABLE CPI JUMPS 1.1% Q/Q, SURPASSING THE 0.9% ESTIMATE.
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