Trump surprised by stock market comeback amid Iran conflict, thought Dow would be down 20%

Former President Donald Trump expressed surprise at the stock market's resilience, noting he expected the Dow to fall 20% due to escalating tensions with Iran, according to a CNBC report. The comment highlights sentiment-driven volatility rather than direct economic impact, with equity markets instead reacting to risk appetite and safe-haven flows amid geopolitical uncertainty. While defense and energy stocks saw upward pressure from conflict risk, broader indices absorbed the shock, suggesting strong underlying confidence in market liquidity and crisis management. The disconnect between political expectations and market behavior underscores the limited transmission of geopolitical rhetoric through financial channels when fundamentals like inflation and rate policy remain stable. Traders will watch the next CPI release for clearer signals on whether risk pricing in equities aligns with macroeconomic trends.

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