Armenia exit EAEU would cut GDP 15.1%, raise inflation 14.3% — security official

Armenia's potential exit from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could reduce GDP by 15.1% and increase inflation by 14.3 percentage points, according to a security official cited by Tass. The transmission mechanism centers on trade disruption and supply chain fragmentation, as the EAEU provides preferential access to key markets like Russia and Kazakhstan, and departure would likely trigger import cost shocks and reduced export demand. Armenian sovereign bonds, the dram, and domestic equities are most exposed due to heightened macroeconomic instability and reduced foreign investment appeal. Traders will watch upcoming statements from Armenia’s Ministry of Economy and any parliamentary debate on EAEU membership as near-term catalysts for market repricing.

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