Oil prices hold near $100 as Trump extends Iran ceasefire but keeps blockade in place

Oil prices remain near $100 per barrel following reports that former President Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran while maintaining a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The standoff continues to constrain Iranian oil exports and reinforces supply disruption risks despite the pause in hostilities, supporting crude prices through tightness in global supply margins. Markets are pricing in persistent geopolitical risk premiums due to limited spare capacity among key producers and ongoing threats to critical shipping lanes. The blockade sustains pressure on Middle East risk premiums, keeping volatility elevated in energy markets and benefiting U.S. shale equities as a relative safe haven. Traders will watch the next EIA weekly inventory report for signs of tightening physical supply, especially in distillate and crude stocks.

Crude oil (WTI/Brent) reacts in real time to OPEC+ production decisions, EIA weekly inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve announcements. A 5% intraday move on breaking news is not unusual.

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