Oil prices hold near $100 as Trump extends Iran ceasefire but keeps blockade in place

Oil prices remain near $100 per barrel following President Trump’s announcement extending a temporary ceasefire with Iran while maintaining a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The standoff continues to constrain Iranian oil exports and reinforces supply disruption risks, tightening global crude availability despite the pause in hostilities. This persistence of geopolitical tension supports Brent and WTI prices through elevated risk premiums, particularly impacting medium-term forward curves and tanker freight rates. Markets are pricing in sustained tightness in the event of renewed escalation or prolonged disruption to Persian Gulf shipping lanes. Traders will watch the next EIA weekly inventory report and any updates on U.S. Fifth Fleet movements for signals on supply normalization.

Crude oil (WTI/Brent) reacts in real time to OPEC+ production decisions, EIA weekly inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve announcements. A 5% intraday move on breaking news is not unusual.

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