Oil Trading in Tight Structure as Strong Retail Sales Reprice Demand Expectations

Strong U.S. retail sales data has led markets to reassess near-term oil demand expectations, supporting prices despite limited supply disruptions. The improved demand outlook is tightening the oil forward curve, reflecting stronger contango compression as traders anticipate higher consumption. This repricing is most evident in Brent and WTI futures, where near-month contracts are outperforming deferred tenors on expectations of robust near-term demand. Retail sector strength, particularly in discretionary spending, is being interpreted as a proxy for resilient consumer fuel demand. Traders will watch the upcoming EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for confirmation of demand trends through changes in refinery utilization and product supplied.

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