New Zealand Finance Minister on Iran war: Inflation could hit 7.4% (worst case scenario)

New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson highlighted a worst-case scenario of 7.4% inflation linked to escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, underscoring indirect economic spillovers from potential conflict. The transmission mechanism stems from elevated oil price volatility and disrupted energy supply routes, which could tighten global energy markets and amplify inflationary pressures. This scenario particularly impacts New Zealand’s bond yields, the NZD, and global crude-sensitive assets due to heightened import cost risks and central bank policy uncertainty. Traders are now focused on the upcoming RBNZ monetary policy statement, where officials may address second-round inflation effects from external supply shocks.

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