Gold rebounds as Iran-US deal hopes drive upside

Gold prices rebounded as renewed optimism over a potential Iran-US diplomatic deal boosted safe-haven demand amid de-escalating Middle East tensions. The market repricing reflects shifting risk appetite, with reduced geopolitical premium initially pressuring gold, though the rebound suggests positioning adjustments on expectations of broader risk-off dynamics if talks stall. Iranian oil exports and sanctions relief remain central to the negotiations, influencing both commodity-linked capital flows and regional risk sentiment. Gold's sensitivity to real yields and central bank demand adds further complexity to its near-term trajectory. Traders will watch upcoming US inflation data and Fed commentary for signals on whether lower geopolitical risk combines with tighter monetary policy to cap gold’s upside.

Gold (XAU/USD) is a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge. Major drivers include Fed policy (real yields), central bank buying (PBOC, RBI), ETF flows, and geopolitical risk. Gold often moves inversely to DXY and real US yields.

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