RUSSIA INTEREST RATE DECISION (APR) ACTUAL: 14.50% VS 15.00% PREVIOUS; EST 14.50%

Russia’s central bank maintained its key interest rate at 14.50% in April, in line with market expectations and leaving policy unchanged from the prior decision in March. The hold reflects a balancing act between persistent inflationary pressures and growing concerns over economic stagnation amid elevated borrowing costs. The decision preserves the current rate differential with nominal yields, supporting the rouble’s carry appeal while limiting further tightening that could dampen already weak domestic demand. Investors will now focus on upcoming inflation data and the central bank’s updated economic projections to assess whether the restrictive stance will be extended or adjusted amid weakening growth momentum. The rouble and local bond yields are most directly exposed to shifts in rate expectations, particularly if inflation reaccelerates or capital controls are modified.

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