Strait of Hormuz will not fully open until second half of 2026, Baker Hughes says

Baker Hughes stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not fully reopen until the second half of 2026, citing prolonged regional instability and infrastructure constraints. This extended disruption supports elevated risk premiums in Middle Eastern oil supply, tightening physical crude markets and reinforcing backwardation in regional crude grades. The constrained chokepoint limits export capacity from major Gulf producers, amplifying sensitivity to geopolitical escalations and driving persistent demand for alternative shipping routes and floating storage. Brent-WTI spreads may remain supported due to differential access to seaborne crude, while regional refining margins in Asia face upward pressure from higher logistics costs. Traders will monitor the next OPEC+ supply policy meeting in June 2025 for potential production adjustments in response to sustained export risks.

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