Trump Scraps US Trip for Iran Talks, Leaving Ceasefire in Limbo

Former President Donald Trump canceled a planned U.S. trip intended to facilitate direct talks with Iran, casting uncertainty over a potential ceasefire agreement amid ongoing regional tensions. The abrupt reversal weakens near-term prospects for diplomatic de-escalation, tightening the geopolitical risk channel that had briefly supported a rally in safe-haven assets and pressured energy prices. Markets most exposed include Middle East-focused equities, defense stocks, and oil futures, which are now repricing the elevated risk of continued hostilities or spillover conflict. Investors will closely watch upcoming U.S. Treasury sanctions enforcement actions and any signals from Tehran regarding retaliatory measures or openness to backchannel negotiations. A scheduled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) briefing on Iran’s nuclear activities later this week may offer the next catalyst for sentiment shifts.

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