TRUMP: THE IRAN WAR COULD END SOON AND THE U.S. WILL BE VICTORIOUS, SIGNALLING OPENNESS TO PHONE-BASED NEGOTIATIONS AND DESCRIBING SOME IRANIAN COUNTERPARTS AS REASONABLE.

Former President Trump's remarks about a potential swift end to the Iran conflict, coupled with his openness to phone-based negotiations and characterization of some Iranian counterparts as "reasonable," signal a potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. This shift in rhetoric could transmit through a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in crude oil prices and regional assets. Energy markets, particularly Brent and WTI crude futures, are most exposed due to the direct implications for Middle Eastern oil supply stability, while regional equity markets and sovereign bonds could see increased risk appetite. Traders will closely monitor any official statements from the Iranian government regarding their willingness to engage in direct negotiations, as well as any concrete steps taken by the U.S. to facilitate such talks.

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