These two countries are the most likely to leave OPEC’s orbit next

Two OPEC member countries are increasingly seen as potential candidates to exit the cartel due to growing divergence in national energy interests and production strategies, according to MarketWatch. The shift reflects a broader breakdown in OPEC cohesion, driven by differing economic priorities and responses to global oil demand volatility, which could weaken the group’s influence on supply discipline and price stabilization efforts. This development pressures OPEC’s ability to manage output effectively, potentially leading to increased production from dissenting members and undermining coordinated market interventions. As a result, Brent and WTI crude prices face downside risks amid concerns over supply overhang and reduced cartel credibility. Traders will watch the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting for signals on production quotas and potential dissent within the group.

Crude oil (WTI/Brent) reacts in real time to OPEC+ production decisions, EIA weekly inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve announcements. A 5% intraday move on breaking news is not unusual.

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