KREMLIN: DECISION TO EXIT OPEC IS UAE'S SOVEREIGN DECISION, RUSSIA RESPECTS IT

The Kremlin stated that the UAE's decision to exit OPEC is its sovereign choice, emphasizing Russia's respect for the move. This announcement introduces uncertainty around OPEC+ cohesion, potentially weakening the bloc's ability to coordinate supply discipline, a key support for oil prices. The market is repricing crude supply outlooks, with Brent and WTI facing downward pressure amid concerns of a production free-for-all if other members reconsider quotas. Russian oil exports, already under price cap pressures, may face added competition in Asian markets, affecting Urals crude differentials. Traders will watch the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting and UAE's actual production data in the coming weeks for signals on whether the split leads to tangible output increases.

Crude oil (WTI/Brent) reacts in real time to OPEC+ production decisions, EIA weekly inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve announcements. A 5% intraday move on breaking news is not unusual.

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