Gold set for weekly rise on US-Iran peace prospects; Hormuz tensions cap gains

Gold is on track for a weekly increase, driven by improved prospects for peace between the U.S. and Iran, which has alleviated some geopolitical tensions. However, ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are limiting the extent of gold's gains, as these tensions could disrupt oil supply and impact inflation expectations. The primary market transmission mechanism here is risk appetite, as traders weigh the potential for reduced conflict against the backdrop of supply chain vulnerabilities. Gold remains particularly sensitive to these developments due to its status as a safe-haven asset. Traders will be closely watching upcoming diplomatic engagements and any statements from U.S. or Iranian officials that could further influence market sentiment.

Gold (XAU/USD) is a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge. Major drivers include Fed policy (real yields), central bank buying (PBOC, RBI), ETF flows, and geopolitical risk. Gold often moves inversely to DXY and real US yields.

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