IMF: Ukraine's Informal Economy at 45% of GDP Needs Cutting

The IMF has highlighted that Ukraine's informal economy, estimated at 45% of GDP, must be reduced to strengthen fiscal stability and support economic reforms. This assessment underscores concerns about tax revenue leakage and weak institutional transparency, which can deter foreign direct investment and impede international financing. A smaller shadow economy would improve macroeconomic data reliability and enhance credibility with creditors, directly influencing Ukraine’s sovereign credit risk and aid disbursement prospects. The reduction of informal activity is also critical for accurate GDP measurement and effective monetary policy transmission. Traders will watch upcoming fiscal reform packages and tax administration updates as key indicators of progress in formalizing the economy.

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