Turkey Raises Year-End Inflation Forecast to 24% Amid Iran Conflict

Turkey’s central bank raised its year-end inflation forecast to 24%, citing heightened regional instability from the ongoing conflict in Iran as a key driver of price pressures. The revision reflects concerns over imported inflation and supply chain disruptions stemming from the war, which are exacerbating lira depreciation and input cost pressures. This shift in inflation expectations is weakening the Turkish lira and increasing risk premiums on local-currency debt, with spillovers into emerging market sovereign spreads. Investors are now pricing in a more hawkish monetary policy stance to counter inflationary spillovers from geopolitical supply shocks. Traders will closely watch Turkey’s April CPI data and central bank commentary for signals on whether rate hikes will outpace inflation in the coming months.

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