Russia's Q1 2026 GDP Contracts 0.2%, First Decline Since 2022

Russia’s Q1 2026 GDP contracted by 0.2% year-on-year according to the Federal Statistics Service, marking the first economic decline since 2022 and signaling a loss of momentum amid stagnant industrial output and subdued consumer demand. The contraction reflects tightening fiscal constraints and reduced capital inflows due to ongoing sanctions, affecting the ruble and local government bond yields through deteriorating growth sentiment. Domestic assets, particularly Russian equities and sovereign Eurobonds, are most exposed as foreign investor appetite wanes amid political risk and limited access to global financial channels. The ruble may face additional depreciation pressure if capital controls are tightened in response to outflows. Traders will watch the Central Bank of Russia’s upcoming interest rate decision for signals on whether policy tightening will resume to support macro stability.

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