G7 Summit Amid Trump's Military Options on Iran and Oil Supply Risks

The G7 meeting takes place amid heightened geopolitical tensions as former President Trump signals readiness to pursue military options regarding Iran, reigniting concerns over Middle East stability. The direct transmission channel is risk appetite and supply disruption fears, which are amplifying volatility in energy markets and affecting global oil supply expectations. Iranian proxy activity and U.S. posturing threaten already tight oil inventories, lifting near-term crude futures and benefiting energy equities, while increasing downside risks for broad equity markets sensitive to higher input costs. Investors are assessing the potential for further supply-chain shocks, particularly in refined products, as OECD stockpiles remain below historical averages. The next key catalyst to watch is the upcoming EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, which will provide updated data on U.S. crude and distillate inventories amid tightening supply dynamics.

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