US Extends Russian Oil Waiver Amid Ongoing Supply Concerns

The U.S. decision to extend the Russian oil price cap waiver has eased immediate supply disruption concerns but maintains pressure on alternative crude flows. The extension preserves existing market access for certain Russian exports, limiting physical supply shocks while reinforcing the price cap mechanism’s role in moderating global oil prices. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential future restrictions continue to pose risks to energy supply chains, particularly for European markets reliant on seaborne crude. This sustained uncertainty supports elevated risk premiums in global oil markets, with Brent crude and refined product spreads remaining sensitive to shifts in Russian export patterns. Traders will watch the next EU sanctions review in June for signals on tightening enforcement or additional curbs on Russian oil trade.

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