Zelenskyy Warns of Imminent Large-Scale Russian Offensive

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has issued a formal warning regarding an anticipated large-scale Russian military offensive, citing intelligence reports of intensified mobilization and strategic positioning along the front lines. This escalation functions through a geopolitical risk premium channel, as the prospect of sustained kinetic conflict threatens to disrupt regional supply chains and exacerbate energy volatility across Eastern Europe. Sovereign debt and local currency markets in both Russia and Ukraine remain acutely exposed to this instability, as heightened hostilities typically trigger capital flight, increased default risk, and severe liquidity constraints for regional financial institutions. Market participants are now prioritizing the upcoming NATO defense ministers' summit, where potential shifts in military aid packages and defensive coordination will serve as the primary catalyst for assessing the duration and intensity of the projected escalation.

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