Eurasian Development Bank Forecasts Russian GDP Growth Slowing to 1%

The Eurasian Development Bank has issued a conservative outlook for the Russian economy, forecasting GDP growth of 1% in 2026 followed by a modest acceleration to 1.5% in 2027. This deceleration reflects a structural supply disruption mechanism, as the economy faces mounting constraints from labor shortages, restricted access to advanced technology, and the long-term impact of capital expenditure limitations. Russian sovereign debt markets and the ruble remain most exposed to these projections, as persistent growth stagnation complicates the central bank’s ability to normalize interest rates while managing inflationary pressures. Traders are now shifting focus toward the upcoming central bank policy meeting, where updated guidance on the terminal interest rate and fiscal spending plans will serve as the primary catalyst for assessing the sustainability of these long-term growth estimates.

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