Citi Sees Brent Crude Dropping to $60 by Year-End on Supply Surplus

Citi analysts project that Brent crude prices may decline to $60 per barrel by year-end, citing a structural shift in global supply-demand balances despite intermittent geopolitical volatility between the United States and Iran. This bearish outlook operates through the mechanism of supply-side normalization, as non-OPEC production growth increasingly outpaces global consumption trends, effectively neutralizing the risk premium typically associated with Middle Eastern supply disruptions. Energy markets and oil-linked currencies face the highest exposure to this downward pressure, as the anticipated surplus threatens to erode the margins of major producers and compress energy sector valuations. Traders are now shifting focus toward the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting, where potential adjustments to production quotas will serve as the primary catalyst for determining whether the cartel can successfully defend current price floors against the prevailing macroeconomic headwinds.

Brent crude is the international oil benchmark, priced in the North Sea. Unlike WTI it reflects global supply/demand — Middle East geopolitics, OPEC+ cuts, Russian export sanctions, and Asian refinery demand all drive Brent intraday.

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