~17 MILLION BPD OF CRUDE STILL MOVED THROUGH HORMUZ MONDAY, BUT DEPLETED STRATEGIC RESERVES, TIGHT REFINING CAPACITY AND ATTACK RISKS COULD DRIVE DIESEL, GASOLINE AND INFLATION HIGHER.

Despite approximately 17 million barrels per day of crude continuing to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the market faces significant upside risks for refined products and broader inflation. The transmission mechanism is a combination of supply disruption risk premium and constrained refining capacity, exacerbated by depleted strategic petroleum reserves globally. This scenario directly impacts crude oil futures, particularly Brent given its global benchmark status, and refined product futures such as RBOB gasoline and heating oil, as the tight supply-demand balance for distillates and gasoline leaves little buffer against further disruptions. Traders will closely monitor weekly EIA inventory reports for crude and refined products, especially distillate stocks, and any geopolitical developments in the Middle East that could impact shipping lanes.

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