CHINA'S COMMERCE MINISTRY: THE EU SHOULD NOT FANTASISE ABOUT GAINING BENEFITS THROUGH PRESSURE ON CHINA, AND SHOULD NOT UNDERESTIMATE CHINA'S DETERMINATION AND ABILITY TO SAFEGUARD ITS OWN INTERESTS

China's Commerce Ministry issued a statement warning the European Union against expecting gains from pressuring Beijing and cautioning it not to underestimate China's resolve to protect its interests. The rhetoric signals that trade frictions between Brussels and Beijing remain unresolved and that Chinese authorities are prepared to respond to EU measures with countermeasures. The transmission channel runs through risk premia and trade-policy uncertainty: escalation raises the probability of tariffs, export restrictions, or retaliatory probes that weigh on Chinese equities, the yuan, and sectors with heavy EU export exposure such as autos, luxury goods, and machinery. European exporters with China revenue exposure face similar downside risk. The next concrete catalyst to watch is China's monthly trade data, which will show whether export volumes to the EU are holding up or contracting ahead of any new retaliatory steps.

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