Fresh inflation, BoC survey data drop next week ahead of rate decision - The Globe and Mail

Canada's upcoming inflation print and the Bank of Canada's business outlook survey are scheduled for release next week, ahead of the central bank's rate decision. The headline does not specify the readings, so the direction of surprise is unknown from the source alone. Because the BoC weighs CPI alongside inflation expectations captured in the survey, a hotter-than-expected print or elevated firms' price expectations would raise odds of a higher-for-longer policy stance, supporting the Canadian dollar through widening rate differentials against peers while pressuring rate-sensitive segments such as Canadian banks, housing-linked equities, and short-end government bonds. Traders should focus on the core CPI measures the BoC prioritizes, the survey's one- and two-year-ahead inflation expectations, and any shift in the pricing of the rate decision in overnight swaps following the release.

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