Iran says it has a "new operational plan" if the US resumes attacks

Iran has publicly stated that it possesses a "new operational plan" to deploy should the United States resume military strikes, signaling continued hostility without specifying the plan's contents. The statement feeds directly into geopolitical risk premia, where markets price the probability of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial share of global seaborne crude transits. Oil futures, tanker and shipping equities, and defense stocks are the most directly exposed, while Gulf-linked currencies and sovereign debt could see spread widening if escalation expectations rise. Traders should watch Brent crude's reaction to any official US military announcement and weekly EIA inventory data for signs of physical supply tightening. The key near-term catalyst is any scheduled diplomatic contact or US policy statement on resuming strikes, which would determine whether this rhetoric translates into a measurable shift in risk pricing.

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