China’s growth rebound tops forecasts to close in on target; Q3 GDP rises 4.5%

China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% year on year, beating consensus forecasts and moving the economy closer to Beijing's full-year growth target. The upside surprise tightens the link between Chinese activity data and global risk appetite, since stronger domestic demand supports commodity imports, industrial metals and Asian export volumes. Chinese equities, the offshore yuan and iron ore and copper futures are the most directly exposed, while Australian and Korean assets, which trade closely with Chinese industrial demand, face a read-through effect. A beat on growth could also reduce expectations for further PBOC monetary easing, shifting rate-differential pricing against the yuan if activity data stays firm. Traders will watch the next monthly industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment prints, along with any fiscal stimulus signals from the Politburo's year-end economic meeting.

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