IRAN SAYS IT HAS 'NO CHOICE' BUT TO ASSERT CONTROL OVER HORMUZ

Iran has stated it has "no choice" but to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global seaborn oil flows. The transmission channel is supply risk: any move toward restricting or policing transit raises the probability of disrupted crude and LNG shipments, which feeds directly into a geopolitical risk premium on Brent and WTI. Energy producers and tanker operators are the most directly exposed, while Asian importers such as Japan, South Korea, and India face the sharpest terms-of-trade pressure given their reliance on Gulf supply. Traders should watch Brent front-month spreads and tanker insurance rate notices from Lloyd's market, as widening war-risk premiums often signal real shipping avoidance before physical volumes fall.

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