Nomura Upgrades China’s Q4 and 2026 GDP Growth Projections, Expects 4% Growth in 2027

Nomura has raised its forecasts for China's fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 GDP growth and now expects growth of around 4% in 2027. The revision signals that the bank sees the economy's momentum firming, which typically narrows expectations for further policy easing and pushes Chinese government bond yields higher as growth-linked inflation and rate-hike risk are reassessed. Chinese equities, particularly cyclical sectors such as industrials, materials, and consumer names tied to domestic demand, tend to be most sensitive to upgrades of this kind, while commodity-linked currencies and iron ore and copper demand proxies may also benefit from the improved outlook. Traders should watch China's upcoming monthly activity data, including industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment, as well as the next Politburo economic meeting, for confirmation of whether policymakers are signaling any shift in stimulus stance.

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