Oil: High prices seen easing only gradually – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts expect elevated oil prices to ease only gradually, implying that the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time rather than normalising quickly. The transmission channel runs through inflation expectations: sustained crude prices feed into energy and transport costs, which can keep headline inflation firm and constrain central banks from pursuing rapid rate cuts. Banks are exposed in two ways, through rate-sensitive net interest margins that benefit from higher-for-longer policy and through credit risk in energy-intensive borrowers if input costs stay elevated. Traders should watch the next weekly EIA crude inventory report and the upcoming consumer price data for signs of whether energy-driven inflation is broadening into core measures.

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