Bank of Israel to pause rate cuts ahead of October 27 election: Reuters poll - WTVB

A Reuters poll of economists reports that the Bank of Israel is expected to pause its interest rate cutting cycle ahead of the October 27 election. The main transmission channel is the policy rate differential: a hold keeps Israeli short-term rates elevated relative to peers that are still easing, which tends to support the shekel through carry-trade and foreign portfolio inflows. Shekel-denominated government bonds and short-dated Israeli rate instruments are the most directly exposed, since their pricing depends on the expected path of the policy rate, while Israeli banks and rate-sensitive equities face shifting net interest margin expectations. Election-related fiscal uncertainty adds a second channel, as political risk premia can widen sovereign spreads and affect shekel demand independently of monetary policy. Traders should watch the Bank of Israel's next rate decision and the accompanying forward guidance, along with Israel's upcoming CPI release, for signals on whether the pause is conditional on inflation trends.

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