PBO projects Canada’s GDP growth will slow to 0.9 per cent in 2026

The Parliamentary Budget Officer has projected that Canada's real GDP growth will decelerate to 0.9 per cent in 2026, a reading that signals a materially weaker economic expansion than in prior periods. The transmission channel runs primarily through the Bank of Canada's policy path: slower growth reduces the case for further restrictive tightening and can pull forward expectations for rate cuts, which narrows the policy differential with the United States and tends to weigh on the Canadian dollar. Canadian equities with heavy cyclical and financial exposure, particularly banks and energy producers sensitive to commodity demand, are most directly exposed, while rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and housing-linked names may see relative support from lower yields. Traders should watch the next Statistics Canada monthly GDP release and the Bank of Canada's upcoming rate decision, as incoming labour market and inflation data will determine whether the slowdown projection translates into a repricing of the policy rate path.

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