PBO projects Canada's GDP growth will slow to 0.9 per cent in 2026

The Parliamentary Budget Officer has projected that Canada's real GDP growth will slow to 0.9 per cent in 2026, a forecast reported by Paula Tran. The transmission channel runs primarily through the domestic growth outlook and the Bank of Canada's rate path: slower expansion weakens the case for further tightening and can pull forward expectations of policy easing, which feeds into Canadian government bond yields and the interest rate differential against the United States. The Canadian dollar is typically sensitive to such revisions because weaker growth relative to peers reduces the attractiveness of CAD-denominated assets, while domestically exposed equities, particularly banks, consumer names, and housing-linked sectors, tend to be most affected by a softer income and credit outlook. Traders will watch the next Statistics Canada monthly GDP release and the Bank of Canada's upcoming rate decision for confirmation of whether the slowdown is materialising and how policymakers interpret it against inflation.

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