RUBIO: OIL GOING THROUGH HORMUZ NEARLY EQUAL TO BEFORE WAR

Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly said that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to levels nearly equal to those seen before the war. The transmission mechanism runs through the supply-risk premium embedded in crude pricing: when tanker traffic through the chokepoint normalizes, the probability of a physical supply disruption falls, which typically compresses the geopolitical component of Brent and WTI and can weigh on energy equities and tanker and insurance-linked names that benefited from elevated freight and war-risk rates. Refined product cracks and Asian import-dependent economies, which have the greatest direct exposure to Gulf crude, would be the most sensitive to any confirmed normalization, while defense-sector and safe-haven assets could see reduced war-premium support. Traders will be watching weekly EIA crude inventory and import data, along with independent shipping-tracker transit counts through Hormuz, to verify whether the reported flow recovery is reflected in physical volumes.

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