RUBIO: OIL GOING THROUGH HORMUZ NEARLY EQUAL TO BEFORE WAR

Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly stated that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to near pre-war levels. The transmission channel here runs through supply risk premia: a credible restoration of Hormuz throughput directly reduces the geopolitical component embedded in Brent and WTI futures, pressuring crude prices lower and easing the inflation pass-through that a Gulf supply shock would otherwise feed into fuel, freight, and petrochemical costs. The most exposed instruments are front-month crude contracts and the oil-sensitive equity cohorts, including integrated energy producers, airlines, and shipping companies, whose margins move inversely with the spread between the risk premium and realized flows. Traders should watch the next weekly EIA petroleum inventory report and tanker-tracking data on Gulf loadings, since confirmation of sustained volumes, rather than a single official statement, will determine whether the premium compression holds.

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