Stephen Roach: Xi May Be Using Trump Summits to Buy Time

The headline attributes to former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach the view that Chinese President Xi Jinping may be using summit diplomacy with President Donald Trump to buy time, a reading that implies Beijing is prioritizing delay over concessions in the bilateral trade and strategic dispute. The transmission mechanism runs through trade-policy risk premia: if markets begin to price a stalled rather than resolved US-China negotiation, the uncertainty feeds into tariff expectations, supply-chain planning, and risk appetite for export-sensitive equities and emerging-market currencies. Exposure is concentrated in Chinese equities and the yuan, US technology and semiconductor names with China revenue exposure, and Asian export economies whose manufacturing cycles are tied to Chinese and American demand. The next concrete catalyst traders should watch is the monthly China trade balance and export data from customs, which will show whether front-loading or diversion of shipments is masking underlying weakness in bilateral trade flows.

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